SPC Mar 8, 2025 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1151 PM CST Fri Mar 07 2025

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL TO
EASTERN GULF COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms will be possible today and tonight from parts
of the southern Plains eastward into the central and eastern Gulf
Coast states.

...Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley/Central and Eastern Gulf
Coast States...
At mid-levels today, a low will move into the southern Plains, as an
80 to 100 knot jet streak translates eastward through the base of
the system. A complex of thunderstorms will be ongoing ahead of the
jet streak this morning across north-central and northeast Texas.
This convection will be mostly to the north of a cold front located
from north Texas eastward into the Ark-La-Tex. The primary severe
threat this morning will be marginally severe hail due to steep
mid-level lapse rates, strong effective shear and sufficient
instability. The cluster of storms will move eastward from the
vicinity of east Texas this afternoon into the Lower Mississippi
Valley this evening. Large-scale ascent ahead of the approaching
system, and strong deep-layer shear will continue to support an
isolated severe threat. The potential for surface-based
thunderstorms is expected to increase as the convection gradually
gains access to a moist airmass located across the Gulf Coast
region. For this reason, marginally severe wind gusts, and a brief
tornado will be possible. The potential for severe gusts will likely
be greatest ahead of short multicell line segments. The severe
threat is expected to continue after midnight, as new storms develop
over the northern Gulf and move northeastward into the central Gulf
Coast and Florida Panhandle.

..Broyles/Halbert.. 03/08/2025

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