SPC Mar 8, 2025 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1029 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025

Valid 081630Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN/EASTERN TEXAS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms will be possible today and tonight from parts
of the southern Plains eastward into the northern Gulf Coast states.

...Texas east to the Florida Panhandle...
An upper-level low over NM will move east generally along the Red
River/TX-OK border through tonight, as a surface cold front from
central TX east across central MS/AL moves slowly south. 
Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase this afternoon across
portions of central/eastern TX within a zone of low-level warm
advection and aided by increasing large-scale ascent with time.
Modest MUCAPE north of the front and sufficient shear for organized
updrafts will result in the potential for large hail with a couple
of stronger storms. Closer to the front over central/east-central TX
thunderstorms are expected to develop through this afternoon, with
the potential for a couple of supercell storms with large
hail/damaging gusts as the primary severe hazards.  Some potential
for a brief tornado may also exist given sufficient low-level shear
within the frontal zone. 

Thunderstorm coverage is also expected to increase farther east
along the front later today and tonight as moisture/buoyancy
increases.  Deep-layer shear will remain supportive of organized
storms, including isolated supercells, with the risk for large hail
and strong/severe gusts.  Some risk for a tornado will remain
through the overnight hours in the vicinity of the front, where
modestly-increasing low-level flow will contribute to sufficient
low-level shear.

..Bunting/Wendt.. 03/08/2025

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