SPC Mar 9, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0653 PM CST Sat Mar 08 2025

Valid 090100Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SABINE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN GULF COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms will be possible tonight from parts of the
southeast Texas eastward into the Gulf Coast states.

...Sabine and Lower Mississippi Valleys/Central and Eastern Gulf
Coast Vicinity...
The latest water vapor imagery has a mid-level low over the southern
High Plains with southwest flow from southwest Texas into the
Ark-La-Tex. An 80 to 100 knot mid-level jet is analyzed by the RAP
over central Texas. A cluster of storms has developed near the exit
region of this feature in southeast Texas. The storms are located
just ahead of a cold front, along inverted trough in the Texas
Coastal Plain, where surface dewpoints are mostly in the 65 to 70 F
range. A small pocket of moderate instability, with MLCAPE in the
1000 to 1500 J/kg range, is analyzed by the RAP in the vicinity of
Houston. The ongoing storms are located along the northern edge of
this stronger instability. The WSR-88D VWP near Houston has 0-6 km
shear around 70 knots. The instability and shear will be sufficient
for a severe threat this evening. The storms should eventually
affect parts of the lower Mississippi Valley later this evening into
the overnight.

Further to the east, a small area of thunderstorms has developed
near the southeastern most point of Louisiana, with other storms
located eastward into the northeastern Gulf. These storms will
continue moving northeastward into the central and eastern Gulf
Coast tonight. Low-level moisture advection, associated with the
approaching mid-level system, will contribute to a gradual increase
in instability across the central and eastern Gulf Coast. For this
reason, a marginal severe threat is expected to develop tonight from
southern Mississippi eastward into southern Alabama, northern
Florida and far southern Georgia. The primary threat will be for
isolated severe gusts. A conditional threat for a brief tornado is
also expected.

..Broyles.. 03/09/2025

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