SPC Mar 9, 2025 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1126 AM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025

Valid 091630Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible today and
tonight from parts of northern/central Florida into southern
Alabama/Georgia.

...Southeast...
A positively tilted upper trough will continue to move eastward over
the lower MS Valley and central Gulf Coast States through tonight. A
related weak surface low near the mouth of the MS River late this
morning will likewise develop eastward along/near the AL/FL Gulf
Coast, with a stalled front extending eastward from this low over
northern FL. Multiple small thunderstorms and clusters are ongoing
across the FL Panhandle and northern FL. Most of this activity is
occurring along/north of the convectively reinforced boundary. While
strong deep-layer shear will conditionally support supercells, this
convection is generally expected to remain elevated, with mainly a
marginal severe hail threat given modestly steepened mid-lapse rates
and weak but sufficient MUCAPE. An isolated hail risk may also exist
with convection well north of the surface boundary into parts of
southern MS/AL. The Marginal Risk for hail has been expanded a
little westward and northward in AL/GA to account for a couple
supercells that may develop later this afternoon.

Additional thunderstorm clusters may also form/consolidate
along/south of the front in north/central FL through tonight. While
lapse rates aloft will remain more modest with southward extent,
gradually increasing low-level moisture and modest daytime heating
should allow for modest destabilization through the late afternoon.
Isolated strong to damaging winds may occur with any surface-based
thunderstorms, and a brief tornado also appears possible through
tonight as low-level southwesterly flow gradually strengthens with
the approach of the upper trough. Overall, severe potential across
the Southeast should tend to remain fairly isolated through the end
of the period.

..Gleason/Wendt.. 03/09/2025

Read more