SPC Mar 11, 2025 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1220 PM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST
TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND NORTHERN
LOUISIANA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms producing large hail and localized wind damage
are likely from northern and eastern Texas into southeast Oklahoma
across southern Arkansas and northern Louisiana late Wednesday
afternoon and evening. Isolated severe activity may persist as far
east as western Mississippi by Thursday morning.

...Synopsis...
On Wednesday, a progressive shortwave trough will move eastward out
of AZ/NM into the southern Plains, beneath the larger-scale upper
ridge over the Plains. This wave will be over OK and TX at 00Z, with
the midlevel speed max nosing toward the ArkLaTex. Substantial
cooling aloft will occur with this system, resulting in steepening
lapse rates and increasing instability. 

At the surface, a low will deepen gradually over OK, with a
front/dryline extending south into central TX. Southerly surface
winds ahead of the front will bring moisture northward, with near 60
F dewpoints as far north as southeast OK and southern AR. Though
winds around 850 mb will veer to west/southwest, deep-layer shear
will remain strong. The end result should be a concentrated area of
hail and wind damage.

...Northeast TX...southeast OK...southern AR...northern LA...
Much of the day will be void of thunderstorms as moisture return
occurs and the trough remains well to the west. However, rapid
cooling aloft during the late afternoon and evening will overspread
the diurnally warmed air mass, with MUCAPE to around 1500 J/kg
developing east of the front which may be near I-35. Winds around
850 mb will become nearly westerly, but not particularly strong
north of the midlevel jet, and this may prevent significant drying
for a time and allow moist parcels near the frontal zone to reach
the LFC. Given the steeper low-level lapse rates west of the front,
the westerly flow may support heated parcels from the west with
moisture mixing vertically near the front.

Forecast soundings show a capped air mass for much of the day, but
at least isolated cells are likely to develop with such steep lapse
rates. The conditional risk of large hail is high, and any storms
that develop are likely to be severe. Inverted-v profiles exist west
of the front which supports the notion that at least a narrow zone
will become uncapped. A storm or two could potentially transition to
a bow echo with localized wind damage potential, as seen in a few
CAMs, with perhaps a few storms persisting toward the MS River by
12Z Thursday.

..Jewell.. 03/11/2025

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