SPC Mar 13, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0756 PM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025 Valid 130100Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS/SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO ARKANSAS AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible from parts of north Texas and southeast Oklahoma into the ArkLaTex late this evening. Large hail and severe gusts should be the primary hazards. ...Discussion... Thunderstorm activity continues across portions of east-central Texas as of 00z. This activity has struggled to maintain intensity, likely owing to dry mid-levels and surface inhibition. The mid-level wave continues to move across this region with forcing for ascent continuing over the next few hours, with potential for additional development across eastern Oklahoma into Arkansas. Ongoing storms are moving into a region with relatively better moisture, with dew points in the 60s to mid 50s and an axis of sufficient MLCAPE (1000-1500 J/kg) across eastern Texas into western Louisiana. With the loss of daytime heating, storms may continue to struggle, however, gusty winds and hail will remain possible given the steep low to mid-level lapse rates and ample shear. The 00z RAOB from Shreveport, LA shows minimal low level inversion for most unstable parcels, however, MLCIN remains present below 700 mb. A similar thermodynamic profile is noted further north from Little Rock, AR, with strong MLCIN below 700 mb and dry mid-levels. Mid-level cooling aloft is just now spreading eastward across the Red River in southern Oklahoma/Texas which may aid in more organized development. This area into western Arkansas will be the most likely region of additional development over the next couple of hours. Should more robust supercell development occur, the risk for large damaging hail and damaging wind will be possible. ..Thornton/Darrow/Guyer.. 03/13/2025
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