SPC Mar 13, 2025 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN
MISSISSIPPI INTO ALABAMA...WESTERN GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
A few severe thunderstorms producing hail and locally damaging gusts
are possible from eastern Mississippi into Alabama, western Georgia,
and parts of the Florida Panhandle today.

...Synopsis...
A shortwave trough will advance eastward out of the southern Plains
and into the southeast states today. Thunderstorm activity may be
ongoing across portions of southern Arkansas into northern
Mississippi at the beginning of the period in response to this
system. Across the western US, a deepening trough will begin to 
move inland with a belt of strong mid to upper level flow extending
across southern California into southern Arizona. A cold front will
shift eastward across southern California into Arizona through the
period.

...Northwest Mississippi, Central/Southern Alabama, western Georgia
and the western Florida Panhandle...
Early in the period, remnant thunderstorm activity from the previous
period may be ongoing across northern Mississippi into far western
Alabama. This remains somewhat uncertain, as thunderstorms struggle
to get going across central Arkansas this morning. Should activity
continue into Mississippi early this morning, it may pose some risk
of hail and damaging wind early in the period.

By the afternoon, diurnal heating across southern Alabama into
western Georgia should yield modest MLCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg with
steepening lapse rates. As mid-level forcing overspreads the region,
additional isolated to scattered thunderstorm development will be
possible from southern Alabama into western Georgia and the Florida
Panhandle, with potential for localized damaging wind and hail with
stronger cores.

...Southern Arizona...
As a cold front progresses across southern Arizona, shower and
thunderstorm activity is expected to spread across the region. Flow
aloft will be quite strong, as a 100 kt jet max digs southward
across the Mexico border. It is possible some higher momentum flow
may mix down to the surface at times for a gust to approach severe
limits within convection. Overall, the weak thermal profile would
suggest the severe threat will remain low.

..Thornton/Darrow/Squitieri.. 03/13/2025

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