
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN MISSISSIPPI INTO ALABAMA...WESTERN GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms producing hail and locally damaging gusts are possible from eastern Mississippi into Alabama, western Georgia, and parts of the Florida Panhandle today. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will advance eastward out of the southern Plains and into the southeast states today. Thunderstorm activity may be ongoing across portions of southern Arkansas into northern Mississippi at the beginning of the period in response to this system. Across the western US, a deepening trough will begin to move inland with a belt of strong mid to upper level flow extending across southern California into southern Arizona. A cold front will shift eastward across southern California into Arizona through the period. ...Northwest Mississippi, Central/Southern Alabama, western Georgia and the western Florida Panhandle... Early in the period, remnant thunderstorm activity from the previous period may be ongoing across northern Mississippi into far western Alabama. This remains somewhat uncertain, as thunderstorms struggle to get going across central Arkansas this morning. Should activity continue into Mississippi early this morning, it may pose some risk of hail and damaging wind early in the period. By the afternoon, diurnal heating across southern Alabama into western Georgia should yield modest MLCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg with steepening lapse rates. As mid-level forcing overspreads the region, additional isolated to scattered thunderstorm development will be possible from southern Alabama into western Georgia and the Florida Panhandle, with potential for localized damaging wind and hail with stronger cores. ...Southern Arizona... As a cold front progresses across southern Arizona, shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to spread across the region. Flow aloft will be quite strong, as a 100 kt jet max digs southward across the Mexico border. It is possible some higher momentum flow may mix down to the surface at times for a gust to approach severe limits within convection. Overall, the weak thermal profile would suggest the severe threat will remain low. ..Thornton/Darrow/Squitieri.. 03/13/2025