SPC Mar 15, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0801 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025

Valid 150100Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms will continue tonight
across parts of the Lower/Mid Mississippi Valley and portions of the
Lower Ohio Valley and Mid-South. Numerous tornadoes, several of
which could be strong to intense, widespread severe gusts ranging
from 60 to 100 mph, and scattered large hail up to baseball size all
appear likely.

...01z Update...

Intense mid-level jet is translating across northeast OK/southwest
MO early this evening. This feature will advance toward southern
Lake MI later tonight as the upper low lifts into northern IA.
Impressive 12hr height falls, and shear are noted ahead of this
cyclone. With 0-3 ESRH in excess of 400 m2/s2, thermodynamics may be
the primary modulator in convective mode this evening/over night.
Over the last few hours, richer boundary-layer moisture is beginning
to surge into the southeastern influence of this ejecting trough.
Lower 60s surface dew points have advanced to near the MO/AR border,
and this is boosting instability within the aforementioned
environment that strongly favors supercells. Several supercells are
in the process of maturing along a corridor from central MO into
northwest AR. Latest thinking is this activity will continue to
evolve and grow upscale. Multiple long-lived supercells are expected
within an environment very favorable for strong-intense tornadoes,
especially from eastern MO, south into MS.

Farther north, damaging winds remain likely with strongly-forced
convection as it surges northeast across the mid-MS Valley into
southeast MN/southern WI. Overall, convective complex will steadily
shift downstream overnight as LLJ strengthens across eastern IL/IN
into southwest lower MI.

..Darrow.. 03/15/2025

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