SPC Mar 15, 2025 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE ATLANTIC COASTAL STATES...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms with a few tornadoes, scattered
damaging winds, and marginally severe hail will be possible on
Sunday across parts of the East.

...Atlantic Coastal States...
At the start of the period, a mid-level trough will be located in
the mid Mississippi Valley, with south-southwest flow in place
across much of the eastern U.S. A 90 to 100 kt mid-level jet streak
should be located over the southern Appalachians. At 12Z on Sunday,
a broken line of strong storms is expected to be ongoing within
relatively close proximity to this jet. The stronger cells within
this broken line may be associated with an isolated severe threat,
as it moves eastward across Virginia, the Carolinas, southeast
Georgia and northern Florida. The severe threat is expected to ramp
up during the mid to late morning as surface temperatures warm ahead
of the line. Isolated severe gusts should occur with the more
organized short multicell line segments.  Cells that remain discrete
could also have a threat for isolated large hail and tornadoes. The
tornado threat is expected to remain isolated, with the greatest
potential in the central Carolinas and south-central Virginia. The
severe threat is expected to be maintained into the afternoon, as
the storms move toward the Atlantic Coast. While the shear
environment will be impressive, instability is forecast to remain
weak with poor low-level lapse rates. This should keep any severe
threat relatively isolated.

...Southern and Central Appalachians...
A mid-level trough will move slowly through the mid Mississippi
Valley on Sunday, as a jet streak translates northeastward into the
central Appalachians. During the morning, convection that is located
near a pre-frontal trough, will move eastward away from the higher
terrain and into the lower elevations of the Atlantic Coastal
Plains. Further west, a cold front is forecast to advance eastward
to near the crest of the southern Appalachians by afternoon. Ahead
of the front, surface heating will take place allowing for weak
destabilization. In addition, the environment will consist of cold
air aloft and strong large-scale ascent near the mid-level jet. This
should support a marginal severe threat in the afternoon, with
isolated severe gusts and hail possible. This severe threat could
extend northeastward into parts of West Virginia and Pennsylvania,
where weak instability is also forecast to remain weak.

..Broyles.. 03/15/2025

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