SPC Mar 15, 2025 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0357 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

Valid 181200Z - 231200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5...
At mid-levels, a trough is forecast to move eastward across the
central U.S. on Tuesday and Wednesday. Ahead of the system,
low-level moisture is forecast to return northward into the lower to
mid Mississippi Valley, with surface dewpoints reaching the 40s and
50s F. This should contribute to an axis of weak instability by
Tuesday afternoon. Along and near this axis, isolated to scattered
thunderstorms are expected to develop from parts of Oklahoma to
Iowa. The chance for storms is expected to continue ahead of the
trough, as it moves into the mid Mississippi Valley on Wednesday. A
severe threat will be possible near the moist axis in the afternoon.
However, relatively low surface dewpoints and very weak instability
should keep any severe threat isolated and marginal.

...Thursday/Day 6 to Saturday/Day 8...
The mid-level trough in the Mississippi Valley is forecast to move
eastward to the Atlantic Seaboard by Thursday night, as another
trough moves into the High Plains. This second trough is forecast to
move across the central U.S. on Friday, reaching the eastern U.S. on
Saturday. Some moisture return is forecast late in the week in the
western Gulf Coast states. Although an isolated severe threat would
be possible within this moist airmass, predictability concerning any
severe threat magnitude is substantial at this range.

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