
Day 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 181200Z - 231200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5... At mid-levels, a trough is forecast to move eastward across the central U.S. on Tuesday and Wednesday. Ahead of the system, low-level moisture is forecast to return northward into the lower to mid Mississippi Valley, with surface dewpoints reaching the 40s and 50s F. This should contribute to an axis of weak instability by Tuesday afternoon. Along and near this axis, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop from parts of Oklahoma to Iowa. The chance for storms is expected to continue ahead of the trough, as it moves into the mid Mississippi Valley on Wednesday. A severe threat will be possible near the moist axis in the afternoon. However, relatively low surface dewpoints and very weak instability should keep any severe threat isolated and marginal. ...Thursday/Day 6 to Saturday/Day 8... The mid-level trough in the Mississippi Valley is forecast to move eastward to the Atlantic Seaboard by Thursday night, as another trough moves into the High Plains. This second trough is forecast to move across the central U.S. on Friday, reaching the eastern U.S. on Saturday. Some moisture return is forecast late in the week in the western Gulf Coast states. Although an isolated severe threat would be possible within this moist airmass, predictability concerning any severe threat magnitude is substantial at this range.