SPC Mar 16, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 160100Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EXTREME SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI ACROSS MUCH OF ALABAMA INTO WESTERN GEORGIA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Widespread severe convection, including the risk for strong tornadoes continues this evening. Severe threat will spread across Alabama into Georgia/Florida Panhandle later tonight. ...01z Update... Strong short-wave trough is evident on water-vapor imagery over eastern OK/TX. This feature will shift into the lower MS Valley later this evening as 100+kt 500mb speed max translates through the base of the trough into the central Gulf States. While the primary synoptic front is lagging the organized band of convection, ample low-level convergence/inflow is noted across southern AL/western FL Panhandle into western GA. This will encourage ongoing activity to propagate downstream, aided by the fast-approaching mid-level speed max/short wave. This corridor of storms is multifaceted with embedded supercells and bowing type structures, within an otherwise broad precip shield. Latest observations suggest the most buoyant air mass is correlated with mid-upper 60s surface dew points, which have advanced as far north as ALX in eastern AL. Air mass recovery is expected downstream into western GA which should support a continuation of ongoing severe into this region. 00z sounding from FFC exhibits fairly steep lapse rates through 6km, and further boundary-layer moistening will prove beneficial for further destabilization. Strong tornado threat continues with any supercells as large-scale support and very strong shear remain favorable. Additionally, damaging winds can be expected with any line segments, and bowing structures. Hail is also possible, especially across the more buoyant southern areas. ..Darrow.. 03/16/2025
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