SPC Mar 16, 2025 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1224 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA...

...SUMMARY...
Sporadic damaging wind swaths and a few tornadoes will be the
primary threats this morning through dusk across a broad portion of
the East.

...OH Valley/northern Middle Atlantic...

Seasonally strong upper trough, though bimodal in nature, will shift
into the OH Valley/Southeast by the end of the period. Ahead of the
main trough, a lead mid-level speed max will translate across
eastern OH/western PA with 500mb speeds in excess of 120kt. This
feature will be partly responsible for sustaining a surface low that
should track from southeast lower MI into ON by early afternoon.
Additionally, LLJ is forecast to increase markedly across western PA
early in the period, and this will aid moistening ahead of the short
wave.

Early this morning, an elongated corridor of
convection/precipitation extends from the FL Panhandle, northeast
into OH. Warm advection will likely maintain this activity which
will be ongoing at the start of the period. Latest model guidance
suggests a secondary band of convection will develop along/ahead of
the front by mid-late morning, and an upward evolving, strongly
forced line of storms, and a few embedded supercells, will surge
east into western PA. Damaging winds seem plausible with this
convection, and profiles also favor some risk for a few brief
tornadoes.

...Southeast...

Mid-level heights will fall across the southeastern U.S. early in
the period as low-latitude jet core shifts east along the Gulf Coast
into GA. This will ensure the primary synoptic front progresses
steadily east through the period. By 18z the wind shift should
extend from the southern Appalachians into the eastern FL Panhandle.
Subsequent movement will result in the front advancing into the
southern FL Peninsula by 17/12z. Scattered strong/severe convection,
with some risk for supercells, will be noted ahead of the surging
boundary. Forecast soundings exhibit very strong 0-6km bulk shear,
and ample ESRH will be more than adequate for a risk of a few
tornadoes. Steep mid-level lapse rates also suggest the more robust
updrafts should generate hail. Overall, severe threat will shift
east/southeast through the period.

..Darrow/Moore.. 03/16/2025

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