SPC MD 238

Mesoscale Discussion 0238
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1016 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025

Areas affected...eastern North Carolina and Virginia

Concerning...Tornado Watch 56...

Valid 170316Z - 170515Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 56 continues.

SUMMARY...Isolated severe storms may still occur over the area,
though the probability is currently low.

DISCUSSION...Earlier bursts of convection which produced large hail
over central NC and rotation over southeast NC have diminished,
though areas of showers and thunderstorms persist. Dewpoints are
largely in the mid 60s, which is still resulting in MUCAPE of around
1000 J/kg in pockets.

As the upper trough and associated cold front continue east, some
increase in convection may yet occur due to cooling aloft atop the
moist air mass. Deep-layer shear remains strong, and low-level shear
with winds veering with height is still conditionally favorable for
rotating storms and brief tornado risk. 

If an uptick in storm strength does not occur prior to 05Z, the
watch will likely be allowed to expire.

..Jewell.. 03/17/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...

LAT...LON   35287966 36107891 36737850 37307825 37757794 37847739
            37697677 37327639 36647613 35897620 35177651 34747697
            34607756 34647847 34767942 34927978 35287966 

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