SPC Mar 17, 2025 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0246 PM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025

Valid 172000Z - 181200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight.

...20Z Update...
The previous forecast (see below) remains largely on track. The main
change made to the 20Z Convective Outlook Update was to trim thunder
probabilities across the Carolinas to the immediate shoreline. Here,
ascent and adequate buoyancy supporting thunderstorms continues to
be shunted offshore as the upper trough ejects into the Atlantic.

..Squitieri.. 03/17/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025/

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A cold front has cleared the Outer Banks and moved offshore. Still,
isolated thunderstorms should persist through this afternoon across
coastal NC and vicinity, as cool temperatures aloft associated with
an eastward-moving upper trough support weak MUCAPE. Small hail may
occur with this activity. Farther west, isolated convection appears
possible this afternoon through tonight across parts of CA into the
Great Basin and interior Pacific Northwest, along with coastal
OR/WA. This activity will occur in association with an upper trough
moving eastward over the western CONUS through the period. Weak
instability is expected to limit the overall severe threat, with
small hail possible with the strongest cores in the northern part of
the Central Valley in CA.

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