SPC Mar 18, 2025 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0350 AM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025

Valid 211200Z - 261200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Friday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 5...
On Friday and Saturday, a shortwave mid-level trough will move
eastward from the Great Plains to the Eastern Seaboard, as a long
fetch of west-northwest flow develops over much of the continental
U.S. Isolated convection may develop ahead of the trough, but
instability will likely be insufficient for a severe threat. In the
wake of this system, low-level moisture return will begin along the
western Gulf Coast. By Saturday, surface dewpoints are expected to
be the upper 50s and lower 60s F over the Texas and Louisiana
Coastal Plain.

...Sunday/Day 6 to Tuesday/Day 8....
On Sunday, moisture advection is forecast to increase over eastern
parts of the southern Plains into the Ark-La-Tex. A mid-level trough
is forecast to move across the central U.S. Ahead of the trough,
moderate instability is forecast to develop across much of a moist
airmass located from the southeastern third of Texas northeastward
into the Ark-La-Tex. On Sunday, thunderstorms with a threat for
isolated large hail and severe gusts are expected to develop along
the northern edge of the moist sector, with a complex of storms
moving southeastward across the Sabine and lower Mississippi Valleys
overnight.

On Monday and Tuesday, the mid-level trough is forecast to move into
the eastern U.S., as a cold front advances southward to near the
Gulf Coast. Although isolated storms could develop in the southern
Gulf Coast states, limited large-scale ascent is expected to be
problematic concerning an organized severe threat.

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