Commerce Secretary Lutnick weighs in on whether US is headed for recession, and what Canada and Mexico can do get tariffs lifted

Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick emphatically rejected the risks of a recession even as markets slide — and said America’s biggest trading partners could easily avoid Trump’s twice-delayed tariffs.

Lutnick, 63, was asked if he was worried about the US sliding into recession Sunday on NBC’s “Meet the Press” — and gave an unequivocal answer.

“Absolutely not. Anybody who bets against Donald Trump, it’s, like, the same people who thought Donald Trump wasn’t going to win a year ago. Donald Trump is a winner,” Lutnick said.

“There’s going to be no recession in America. What there’s going to be is global tariffs are going to come down,” the commerce secretary added.

“You are going to see over the next two years the greatest set of growth coming from America.”

Goldman Sachs has forecasted that the risk of a recession has jumped by 20% over the next 12 months amid tariff-induced angst.

Lutnik also explained that Trump’s decision about whether to keep the tariffs in place is contingent on Canada’s, China’s and Mexico’s behavior.

Last Tuesday, the Trump administration slapped 25% across-the-board tariffs on Canada and Mexico, as well as a 20% across-the-board tariff on China.

Trump, 78, did so under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, which gives the president broad powers to use tariffs during emergency situations.

The justification for these tariffs is the smuggling of deadly fentanyl into the US and — in the case of the US neighbors — the illegal immigration crisis. Back in November, Trump gave an ultimatum to the three countries to stop the flow of the synthetic opiod, or else face sweeping tariffs.

Markets have been rattled by the tariffs, which impact some $1.5 trillion worth of goods and services. The Dow Jones Industrial Average shed roughly 1,098 points during the past week, while the S&P slipped 198 points and Nasdaq lost 727 points over the same timeframe.

“This is the way you run the country,” Lutnick argued. “You shut the borders and get our neighbors to do their job. It’s not only us who has to do their job. Why are neighbors who live in our economy not taking care of America?”

Shortly after imposing the tariffs, Trump quickly added significant carveouts to ease the impact of the duties on imports.

He relaxed tariffs on auto imports and then exempted products or services that are subject to the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA), the trade pact he negotiated during his first term.

“Everybody who’s outside that deal, who took the risk, who didn’t pay attention and respect the agreements that President Trump made his first term, they’re going to pay a 25% tariff,” Lutnick explained.

“And that’s sort of like meeting in the middle,” he added. “Canada and Mexico promised they are going to crush the border and they’re going to crush fentanyl. And that’s what our president is here to do, to stop fentanyl killing Americans.”

As for when the tariffs will end, Lutnick reiterated that it depends on whether Mexico and Canada step up.

“If fentanyl ends, I think these will come off, but if fentanyl does not end, or he’s uncertain about it, they will stay this way until he is comfortable,” Lutnick said.

“This is black and white. You’ve got to save American lives.”

Trump is also planned to pursue another round of tariffs, including reciprocal tariffs on April 2.

On Thursday, Trump held a meeting with cabinet officials and Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) boss Elon Musk to hash out differences over cuts.

Musk had clashed with Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy and Secretary of State Marco Rubio during that meeting, the New York Times reported.

Trump has since downplayed the reported flap. After the meeting, he publicly announced that he was reining in Musk and that cabinet officials would take the lead on staffing decisions.

“What President Trump made clear is that Elon is your partner, and that is what we’d like,” Lutnick said of the meeting. “You have the greatest businessman and greatest technologist in the world as my partner.”

“Government has grown insanely. We’ve got to cut the size of this government, but let’s – the president’s advice and guidance was, let’s be super sharp,” Lutnick added. “Let’s make sure we cut with a scalpel. Let’s be sharp.”

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