SPC Mar 10, 2025 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1157 PM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL FLORIDA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with a marginal risk for severe gusts, and
potentially a brief tornado, will be possible today in parts of
central Florida.

...Central Florida...
A mid-level low will move eastward across Georgia today, as a
positively-tilted trough approaches the Florida Peninsula. At the
surface, a cold front will advance southeastward across the Florida
Peninsula. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints will be mostly in
the mid to upper 60s F. As surface temperatures warm within this
moist airmass this morning, instability will gradually increase. RAP
forecast soundings across central Florida to the north of Lake
Okeechobee have SBCAPE peaking in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range.
Surface-based thunderstorms are expected to develop around mid
morning, supported by frontal forcing and large-scale ascent
associated with a mid-level jet passing to the north. The storms
will move eastward across central Florida from late morning into
early afternoon. Near the front, 0-6 km shear is forecast to be
around 50 knots, which suggests that a marginal severe threat could
develop. Short multicell line segments could have potential for
isolated severe gusts as low-level lapse rates become maximized
around midday. A brief tornado could also be possible, if a rotating
storm can develop. The severe threat is expected to end during the
afternoon, as the stronger low-level flow moves offshore into the
western Atlantic.

..Broyles/Squitieri.. 03/10/2025

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