
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 PM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with a marginal risk for severe gusts, and potentially a brief tornado, will be possible today in parts of central Florida. ...Central Florida... A mid-level low will move eastward across Georgia today, as a positively-tilted trough approaches the Florida Peninsula. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward across the Florida Peninsula. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints will be mostly in the mid to upper 60s F. As surface temperatures warm within this moist airmass this morning, instability will gradually increase. RAP forecast soundings across central Florida to the north of Lake Okeechobee have SBCAPE peaking in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. Surface-based thunderstorms are expected to develop around mid morning, supported by frontal forcing and large-scale ascent associated with a mid-level jet passing to the north. The storms will move eastward across central Florida from late morning into early afternoon. Near the front, 0-6 km shear is forecast to be around 50 knots, which suggests that a marginal severe threat could develop. Short multicell line segments could have potential for isolated severe gusts as low-level lapse rates become maximized around midday. A brief tornado could also be possible, if a rotating storm can develop. The severe threat is expected to end during the afternoon, as the stronger low-level flow moves offshore into the western Atlantic. ..Broyles/Squitieri.. 03/10/2025