SPC Mar 10, 2025 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 AM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from eastern Texas into southeast Oklahoma, southwest Arkansas, and northwest Louisiana late Wednesday afternoon and evening. ...ArkLaTex vicinity... An upper shortwave trough will track east from the southern Rockies to the Southeast on Wednesday. A 70+ kt jet streak will mostly overspread central/southern TX toward LA through evening before weakening some overnight along the central Gulf coast. A weak surface low is forecast to move across OK through evening, and dissipate as it shifts toward the Lower MS Valley overnight. Southerly low-level flow ahead of the low will allow for modest northward transport of Gulf moisture across eastern TX into the ArkLaTex vicinity. Near-60 F dewpoints may approach the I-20 corridor, but overall moisture quality is expected to remain poor given the prior very dry airmass. Nevertheless, cooling aloft will result in an area of steep midlevel lapse rates, supporting a corridor of 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE from east TX into southern AR. Some forecast guidance suggests midlevel capping my inhibit surface-based convection, with the NAM notably being an outlier with much stronger inhibition around 850 mb compared to the GFS/ECMWF. Given the region will be within the favorable left-exit region of the midlevel jet streak, providing sufficient forcing amid supercell wind profiles, even elevated storms could pose a severe risk, from mainly large hail. If surface-based convection can develop, strong gusts or perhaps a tornado (mainly over east TX where somewhat better moisture will be located), though this potential is more conditional. ..Leitman.. 03/10/2025
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