
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across far southwest California and southern/central Arizona Tuesday afternoon/evening. Severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis... A closed upper low, off the coast of southern California Tuesday morning, will slowly drift inland across southern California and become more of an open wave across southern Arizona by the end of the period. The moisture stream ahead of this trough has some tropical connection which will bring near 1 inch PWAT values to coastal southern California and southern Arizona. This low-level moisture, combined with cooling temperatures aloft, will provide an environment favorable for scattered thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon/evening. Instability should be generally weak (250-500 J/kg MLCAPE) but greatest beneath the upper low, where mid-level flow will also be weak. Therefore, thunderstorm activity should be most favored where shear is weakest and thus, the severe weather threat should remain minimal. Any marginal severe weather threat which may be present will likely be farther south across northern Mexico beneath the stronger mid-level flow. ..Bentley.. 03/10/2025