SPC Mar 10, 2025 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1145 AM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across far southwest California
and southern/central Arizona Tuesday afternoon/evening. Severe
storms are not expected.

...Synopsis...
A closed upper low, off the coast of southern California Tuesday
morning, will slowly drift inland across southern California and
become more of an open wave across southern Arizona by the end of
the period. The moisture stream ahead of this trough has some
tropical connection which will bring near 1 inch PWAT values to
coastal southern California and southern Arizona. This low-level
moisture, combined with cooling temperatures aloft, will provide an
environment favorable for scattered thunderstorms Tuesday
afternoon/evening. Instability should be generally weak (250-500
J/kg MLCAPE) but greatest beneath the upper low, where mid-level
flow will also be weak. Therefore, thunderstorm activity should be
most favored where shear is weakest and thus, the severe weather
threat should remain minimal. Any marginal severe weather threat
which may be present will likely be farther south across northern
Mexico beneath the stronger mid-level flow.

..Bentley.. 03/10/2025

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