SPC Mar 10, 2025 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with an isolated risk for severe gusts will continue across the southern Florida Peninsula this afternoon. ...20z Update... The Marginal risk area was reduced across central Florida with this update with the passage of the front. Some severe risk continues across portions of the southern Florida peninsula where temperatures have warmed into the upper 70s to 80s with MLCAPE around 500 J/kg remaining ahead of the front. In addition, deep layer flow remains strong as the mid-level wave continues to move across the peninsula, which may support instance of a stronger storm or two capable of damaging wind. ..Thornton/Mosier.. 03/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1116 AM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025/ ...Central/Southern FL Peninsula... Recent surface analysis places a low just off the GA Coast, with a cold front extending southwestward from this low across far southeast GA and western north FL into the northeastern Gulf. A relatively broad surface trough (and modest wind shift) exists ahead of this front across the central FL Peninsula. Thunderstorms are currently ongoing within the area of low-level confluence and moisture convergence, which extends well offshore. The downstream airmass across central and southern FL is currently characterized by temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s, and dewpoints in the low 70s. Overall buoyancy within these warm and moist conditions is currently mitigated somewhat by warm temperatures aloft, which were sampled well by the 12Z MFL sounding. Even so, enough boundary-layer warming appears likely throughout the day to maintain modest destabilization within at least a narrow corridor of higher pre-frontal moisture content. Continued thunderstorm development is anticipated within this corridor as it gradually shifts southward/southeastward this afternoon and evening. Strong low to mid-level flow will persist across the peninsula, with a resulting persistence of deep-layer vertical shear. As such, the environment will remain favorable for isolated to widely scattered supercell development. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary risk from these storms. Modest clockwise-curved low-level hodographs suggest a short-lived tornado or two is also possible throughout the day, but these hodographs are forecast to shrink with southern extent as surface to 850 mb flow veers to a more westerly component and begins to weaken some. As mentioned in the recently issued MCD #0161, the near coastal areas between Palm Beach and Vero Beach appear to have the greatest (although still relatively low) tornado risk this afternoon.
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