SPC Mar 16, 2025 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA...IOWA AND FAR NORTHERN MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with marginally severe hail will be
possible from late Tuesday night into the early morning on Wednesday
from southeast Nebraska into Iowa and far northern Missouri.

...Southeast Nebraska/Iowa/Far Northwest Missouri...
At mid-levels on Tuesday, anticyclonic flow is forecast to be in
place across the eastern half of the nation, as a trough moves
quickly eastward through the Intermountain West and central Rockies.
During the afternoon and evening, moisture return will take place
ahead of the approaching system from the Ark-La-Tex northward into
the mid Missouri Valley. By Tuesday night, surface dewpoints are
forecast to reach the upper 40s and lower 50s F within a narrow
corridor from far eastern Oklahoma into far eastern Kansas and
southern Iowa. Overnight, a cold front is forecast to move through
the central Plains and mid Missouri Valley, along which thunderstorm
development is expected to take place. Forecast soundings at 06Z to
09Z near the front in far northwest Missouri and far southern Iowa
have a low-level temperature inversion up to near 850 mb, with
elevated instability located mostly above 700 mb. MUCAPE in the area
is forecast to reach the 500 to 750 J/kg range, with effective shear
of 30 to 40 knots. Mid-level lapse are forecast to be around 8 C/km.
This environment could be enough for marginally severe hail with
rotating storms that move along and near the instability axis. The
majority of the severe threat is expected late in the period,
between 06Z to 12Z early on Wednesday.

..Broyles.. 03/16/2025

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