SPC Mar 16, 2025 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1200 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected Monday.

...Discussion...
A return to negligible severe potential across the CONUS will occur
on Monday. 

In the West, a broad upper trough will progress with multiple
embedded shortwave impulses. The primary impulse will move across
parts of CA into the southern Great Basin, aiding in overall
amplification of the trough by Monday night. A large plume of cool
mid-level temperatures combined with modest boundary-layer heating
should support pockets of scant to meager buoyancy. Low-topped
convection will be most probable across the Central Valley of CA,
where thunder coverage may become scattered during the afternoon.
Weak deep-layer shear is expected where instability develops, north
of the southern CA jetlet. While small hail and locally gusty winds
are possible, organized severe storms are not anticipated. Elsewhere
in the West, thunder coverage should be rather isolated.

Low-probability thunder with isolated low-topped convection is
apparent along the immediate NC coast on Monday afternoon. While a
post-frontal environment, scant buoyancy may develop as a sharp
gradient in mid-level cooling approaches at peak boundary-layer
heating.

..Grams.. 03/16/2025

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