SPC Mar 17, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0737 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC INTO PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Damaging wind and a few tornadoes remain possible this evening across parts of the Mid-Atlantic and the Southeast. ...01Z Update... Northern-stream short-wave trough is ejecting north-northeast across ON/upstate NY early this evening. As this feature ejects into Canada, the primary focus for organized deep convection will shift south across the Middle Atlantic/Carolinas, in response to a low-latitude speed max that will translate through the base of the long-wave trough into this portion of the CONUS. A notable frontal surge is occurring across the northeast Gulf Basin, and low-level flow is beginning to veer across GA into western SC. This synoptic front will be the primary demarcation for organized convection/severe potential the rest of tonight. Over the last few hours, there appears to be some propensity for a gradual uptick in convection across the southern Middle Atlantic/coastal SC. This activity should spread northeast within a strongly sheared environment characterized by modest buoyancy and steep mid-level lapse rates. Damaging winds are the main threat, though some tornado risk continues given the strong shear and embedded supercell structures. ..Darrow.. 03/17/2025
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