SPC Mar 17, 2025 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1206 PM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO IOWA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated, marginally severe hail will remain possible during the
overnight late Tuesday into early Wednesday from eastern Nebraska
across much of Iowa.

...Synopsis...
A pronounced mid-level trough will eject into the Plains states,
encouraging rapid surface cyclone development and intensification
along the KS/OK border Tuesday. As this occurs, very strong
low-level flow will encourage the northward advection of marginal
moisture across the Plains toward the Midwest. By late Tuesday night
into Wednesday morning, low-level moisture convergence along the
terminus of the low-level jet will encourage thunderstorm
development along an effective warm front. Given strong vertical
wind shear in proximity to the low-level jet terminus, a few strong
to potentially severe thunderstorms are possible.

...Central Plains/Midwest...
After 06Z, the nose of a 50+ kt south-southwesterly low-level jet
will become established roughly along the KS/NE/IA/MO border, where
isentropic lift will encourage elevated thunderstorm development
above an inversion layer (roughly 800-700 mb in altitude). Above the
inversion, forecast soundings show 8-9 C/km mid-level lapse rates
contributing to 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE, with elongated/straight
hodographs contributing to 50 kts of effective bulk shear. This
environment will support elevated supercells traversing the
effective warm front with a threat for hail, a few instances of
which may exceed severe limits. Timing for any severe hail appears
to fall within the 06-12Z Wednesday morning period.

..Squitieri.. 03/17/2025

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