SPC Mar 7, 2025 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1129 AM CST Fri Mar 07 2025

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TEXAS
TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms may
occur from portions of East Texas into the Central Gulf Coast region
on Saturday. Large hail is the primary hazard with the strongest
storms.

...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough will eject into the southern Plains during the
afternoon on Saturday. This feature will progress eastward into
parts of the lower Mississippi Valley late Saturday into Sunday
morning. A strong mid-level jet will accompany this trough. At the
surface, a cold front will be draped across the Mid-South/Southeast
into North Texas. A weak surface low will develop along the front in
Central/East Texas and move into lower Mississippi Valley during the
evening.

...North Texas...
Convection will likely be ongoing early Saturday morning. Forecast
soundings indicate sufficient elevated buoyancy, mid-level lapse
rates, and effective shear to support large hail for an hour or two.
Thereafter, buoyancy should quickly decrease.

...East Texas into lower Mississippi Valley and western Florida
Panhandle...
The cold front may make some southward progress early in the period,
but is generally expected to stall somewhere in the Gulf Coast
vicinity. This boundary will demarcate the where the greatest severe
potential will be as mid/upper 60s F dewpoints are  expected south
of the boundary. While some convection may be ongoing along the
boundary early in the period, models suggest potential for
additional development by the evening as stronger mid-level ascent
approaches. Areas along and south of the cold front will have the
greatest potential for near-surface to surface based storms. Steep
mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear will support a
threat for large hail, primarily. Depending on the degree of
surface-based destabilization that occurs, and isolated strong wind
gusts or perhaps a tornado could also occur. Low-level wind fields
will not be overly strong, but should be sufficient for those
conditional risks.

The overall severe threat will gradually decrease with northern
extent. However, there will be some elevated buoyancy (perhaps
500-750 J/kg MUCAPE) north of the boundary along with strong
deep-layer shear. Small to marginally severe hail could occur with
the strongest storms.

..Wendt.. 03/07/2025

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