SPC Mar 8, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0658 PM CST Fri Mar 07 2025

Valid 080100Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms with isolated large hail are expected tonight across
parts of north-central and northeast Texas.

...North-central and Northeast Texas...
The latest water vapor imagery has a mid-level low located over the
Desert Southwest, with relatively dry air present within
west-southwesterly flow over parts of the southern Plains and mid
Mississippi Valley. As the mid-level low in the Desert Southwest
moves eastward toward the southern Rockies, low-level moisture
advection and instability will increase across the southern Plains.
The exit region of the mid-level jet will move eastward into the
southern Plains tonight, contributing to a low-level jet response.
850 mb flow is expected to increase to between 30 and 40 knots over
parts of southwest and central Texas. As instability and lift
increases, thunderstorm development is expected after midnight
across parts of north-central Texas. The latest RAP forecast
soundings in the 06Z to 12Z time frame over north-central Texas have
MUCAPE peaking around 1200 J/kg, with 700-500 mb lapse rates
reaching 7.5 C/km. Effective shear is forecast to increase into the
50 to 65 knot range. This environment should support an isolated
large hail threat with elevated rotating storms. The threat for hail
could develop eastward into parts of northeast Texas by the end of
the period. For this update, the Marginal Risk has been expanded
into northeast Texas.

..Broyles.. 03/08/2025

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