SPC Mar 8, 2025 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0155 PM CST Sat Mar 08 2025

Valid 082000Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF
 NORTHERN/EASTERN TEXAS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms will be possible this afternoon and tonight
from parts of the southern Plains eastward into the northern Gulf
Coast states.

...20z Update...
Only minor adjustments are needed for this update with the more
notable changes being an expansion of low-end severe probabilities
southward along the TX coast to include the Houston metro area and
an eastward expansion to the Atlantic coast along the FL/GA line.
Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track per the previous
discussion.

...TX Gulf Coast...
Recent surface observations across the TX Coastal Plain show a
deepening low to the northwest of the Houston area with a subtle
warm front extending to the southeast to the Gulf coast. Shallow,
but slowly deepening cumulus are noted downstream of the low and
along the frontal zone where temperatures have warmed into the low
80s amid broken cloud cover. This area represents a preferential
corridor for storm propagation within an environment characterized
by lifted indices between -6 to -8 C. Recent HRRR runs appear to
have picked up on this trend compared to 12z guidance and show a
signal for strong, to potentially severe, convection later this
afternoon/evening. 

...FL/GA Atlantic Coast...
Recent CAM guidance has trended towards a higher coverage of
convection across northern FL/southern GA early Sunday morning with
stronger updraft intensity/helicity signals compared to prior runs.
Although convective mode will likely be semi-discrete and clusters,
sufficient buoyancy and effective shear should be in place to
support a few somewhat organized cells and/or segments with an
attendant damaging wind threat.

..Moore.. 03/08/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025/

...Texas east to the Florida Panhandle...
An upper-level low over NM will move east generally along the Red
River/TX-OK border through tonight, as a surface cold front from
central TX east across central MS/AL moves slowly south. 
Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase this afternoon across
portions of central/eastern TX within a zone of low-level warm
advection and aided by increasing large-scale ascent with time.
Modest MUCAPE north of the front and sufficient shear for organized
updrafts will result in the potential for large hail with a couple
of stronger storms. Closer to the front over central/east-central TX
thunderstorms are expected to develop through this afternoon, with
the potential for a couple of supercell storms with large
hail/damaging gusts as the primary severe hazards.  Some potential
for a brief tornado may also exist given sufficient low-level shear
within the frontal zone. 

Thunderstorm coverage is also expected to increase farther east
along the front later today and tonight as moisture/buoyancy
increases.  Deep-layer shear will remain supportive of organized
storms, including isolated supercells, with the risk for large hail
and strong/severe gusts.  Some risk for a tornado will remain
through the overnight hours in the vicinity of the front, where
modestly-increasing low-level flow will contribute to sufficient
low-level shear.

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