SPC Mar 9, 2025 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0747 AM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025

Valid 091300Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND INTO NORTH FLORIDA AND THE
PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible today from
parts of northern Florida into far southeast Alabama and southern
Georgia.

...Far Southeast Alabama/Southern Georgia/Northern Florida...
Morning surface analysis places a low near the mouth of the MS River
and a maritime front draped east over the continental shelf waters
south of the FL Panhandle.  A lead mid-level shortwave trough,
evident in early morning water-vapor imagery, is moving east along
the central Gulf Coast.  Farther upstream over AR-OK-TX, a mid-level
low and associated positive-tilt trough are forecast to move
east-southeastward into southern AL and the northern Gulf of
America.  Episodic scattered showers/thunderstorms are forecast in
the vicinity or north of the west-east oriented frontal zone. 
Surface-based development should be confined to areas near and to
the south of the front, where weak instability (200-800 J/kg MLCAPE)
and strong deep-layer shear (45-55 kt effective shear) are forecast.
A mix of a few strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms, in the
form of weak supercell structures and organized linear bands, will
be capable of isolated 55-70 mph gusts, perhaps a risk for a brief
tornado, and marginally severe hail (up to 1.25 inches in diameter).
A gradual waning of the severe risk is forecast by late evening.

..Smith/Dean.. 03/09/2025

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